Health psychology/Cognitive biases · Clinical reasoninglow yield

Hindsight bias

What it means

Once an outcome is known, judging the earlier decision by that outcome ("I knew it all along") — closely linked to outcome bias, distorting appraisal and learning.

Worked example

Rating a reasonable plan as negligent only because the patient later deteriorated.

In the exam

At a morbidity meeting, a sensible initial management plan is condemned as obviously wrong purely because the patient subsequently did badly.

What settles it

Hindsight/outcome bias judges a decision by its known RESULT rather than the information available at the time. Confirmation bias operates while the diagnosis is still open, selectively gathering support.

Classically confused with

Confirmation bias

Source: Croskerry