Health psychology/Cognitive biases · Clinical reasoninglow yield

Overconfidence bias

What it means

Acting on incomplete information and favouring opinion over evidence, with too much faith in one’s own judgement.

Worked example

Skipping a guideline-mandated test because "I just know what this is".

In the exam

Sure of his own clinical acumen, a doctor forgoes the recommended investigations and acts on impression alone — and is wrong.

What settles it

Overconfidence is excessive trust in one’s own judgement. Confirmation bias is the mechanism of selectively gathering support; overconfidence is the attitude.

Classically confused with

Confirmation bias

Source: Croskerry